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Israel’s War on Gaza: Impact and Regional Response

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The Gulf's Influence on Gaza

As the Gulf countries seek to expand their reach through free-trade agreements and diplomatic normalization, Gaza finds itself affected by these transformations. Gulf money plays a dominant role in shaping the region's political and economic landscape, imposing its own vision and limiting freedoms. However, there are distinctions between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, with Saudi Arabia having its own internal dynamics and forces.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE's Position on the War

The UAE has taken significant steps towards normalization with Israel, while Saudi Arabia's position remains unclear. Saudi Arabia, as the largest Gulf country, has maneuverability and may try to mediate between the parties to benefit from all outcomes. However, it is uncertain whether Saudi Arabia would rush to normalize relations with Israel when it can offer a higher price to the Palestinians. Both countries' positions are crucial in shaping the conflict.

Egypt's Relationship with Gaza

Egypt recognizes the independence of the Palestinian national decision-making process and wants to preserve Gaza as a place under the administration of the Palestinians. Egypt does not want to control Gaza due to the challenges it would pose to its own political equation. Egypt has learned from its past experiences and understands the consequences of managing a territory with armed forces. The Egyptian state, including the army and intelligence services, thinks similarly and has been consistent in its approach since 1967.

Calculations of Other Regional Powers

With the exception of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, most regional powers are facing crises socially, politically, and economically. The idea of war becomes plausible for these parties as a way to escape their crises and gain advantages. Iran, for example, may see an American and Israeli escalation as an opportunity to unite its home front and neutralize opponents, using Persian-Islamic nationalism as a tool. The outbreak of war is being entertained by different parties simultaneously.

The Threat to Palestinian Resistance

The Palestinian armed resistance is fighting on their land and is not easily uprooted. While there may be efforts to exile Hamas, the Palestinian organizational infrastructure is capable of reproducing itself as long as it remains within its social and popular incubators. Exiling Palestinians to the Sinai would seriously threaten peace with Egypt and may not be an achievable or intelligent plan.

Impact on Regional Authorities

The impact of the crisis on regional authorities will depend on their behavior and management of their positions within the conflict. In Egypt, this war may reconnect the national issue with the social issue, as the American discourse reveals a disregard for the existence of the people in the region. This could push people towards extreme positions in nationalism, leftism, Islamism, and other aspects. The situation is still unfolding, and its long-term effects remain to be seen.

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